Methodology

This report separates facts from estimates. Here we explain where each figure comes from, how derived numbers are computed, and the limits of the data.

Evidence tiers

Every figure is labeled by its origin and reliability.

Official data: published by a government institution (SIAP, CONADESUCA, INEGI, DOF).
Sector estimate: a figure from an industry chamber or trader; not official.
Press report: a figure cited by the press, attributed to its outlet and date.
Analytical interpretation: our own calculation from official data.
Academic study: a peer-reviewed research result.
Hypothetical scenario: an assumption to explore possibilities, not a forecast.
Demo data: a temporary placeholder while the official source is incorporated.

How derived figures are computed

Veracruz share: Veracruz cane production divided by national production for the same year (SIAP).
Producers exposed per mill: the mill's cane milled times the national ratio of 170,000 producers to 53 million tonnes; a rough estimate.
Documented closures: a direct count from our verified closures timeline, not an exhaustive census.
Operational health: the average sugar recovery of the last 3 seasons per mill, compared with the sector average (Infocana, CONADESUCA).
Real values: adjusted for inflation with the INPC (INEGI) where applicable.

Limits and caveats

Map locations are approximate (municipal seat) and unverified.
The closures timeline is a documented sample with several sources, not an exhaustive record.
Producer and employment estimates are orders of magnitude, not censuses.
No number is presented as fact without a source.

Sources

The full source catalog, with institution, title and link, is on the Sources page.

See all sources →